Risk models for maritime security, area and port force protection

Asymmetric and terrorist threats stand as perhaps one of the greatest threats to maritime forces at present. Accordingly, there has been an increase in the study of problems related to this threat in the defense community. This report discusses models related to maritime security, area and port force protection. The primary focus is the discussion of an area force protection model designed to consider the situation where an escorted vessel traveling through constrained waters comes under attack by a fast, small boat. A method where discrete bursts of gunfire are averaged over time to provide an effectiveness model is presented and used to identify the likelihood of defending against such an attacker. The approach is also used to identify the effects of ship maneuvers and augmentation teams in improving the probability of a positive outcome. Three other models that examine port scenarios are presented. The first is based on the same methodologies as the area force protection model and gives a measure of the ability to neutralize an incoming threat by a shore-based or moored defender. For the others, one uses an agent-based approach to identify how the positioning of a patrol boat guarding a particular asset affects its response capabilities, while the other introduces a ship-turning model to help define the areas in a port that could be struck by a hijacked commercial vessel. For all models, an example of the type of output that can be produced is presented.