Research on New Method to Obtain Load Density According to Fuzzy Closeness Analysis Theory

Long and middle-term load forecasting is an important and integral component in the electrical power system planning and operations. And one of the important methods to make load forecast is to obtain load density. The theory of fuzzy closeness analysis is introduced to calculate load density, which adopts weighted hamming approach degree to calculate approach degree between standard sample of different grades and "low" level sample, as well as that between test zone X and "low " level sample. Then the load density of zone X can be got as reference, after obtaining the thresholds of classifying load density. At last, the proposed method is demonstrated to obtain load forecasting in one of shanghai business districts, and the results show that the difference between the predicted value and measured value was no more than 3%. The example proves that it is practicable, because of the reasonable method, clear concept, and simple calculations.