On wheat storage period estimation using Markov_ chain Analysis

Wheat storage is an important part of grain logistics and also it is vital for the security of food which has wheat as raw material. Currently, the estimated storage period for wheat in China is 3-5 years. This paper establishes a mathematics model with Markov chain and applies it with the data from 70 national reserved grain depots of Henan Province. A MP based calculation is proposed in this paper because it is effective for the data of wheat storage in china. Ratio of wheat in different qualities every half year in the depot and total rotation quantity in the three and half years can be calculated respectively. The analyzing results coincide with the current rotation in the storage and produced more useful information such as the percentage of discarded wheat in each stage of one rotation. Therefore, this new proposed mathematics model can help the decision-making of the management of the storage.