Applying scenario technology analysis for new product dynamic strategic planning

This article intends to discuss the possibility of how to quickly improve the function of adaptive prediction direction for scenario analysis (SA) in technology-intensive industries. Therefore, this study is based on SA theory that combines the technology life cycle (TLC) viewpoint with the goal-oriented properties of path analysis model (PAM) to build an adapted SA for the purpose of dynamic technology forecasting. Using the goal-oriented properties of PAM, the adapted SA can quickly evaluate changes in the technical development of a market´s dynamic schedule and can identify the gap between expectations and reality. This study proposes an adapted SA that allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios that can be used as a helpful planning tool for dynamic assessment.