Assessment of Distribution System Reliability Based on Bayesian Network and Time Sequence Simulation

Bayesian networks for distribution system were studied, ¿unite¿ relationship models and ¿cause-effect¿ relationship models were set up; A reasoning algorithm of reliability assessment for distribution system, which combines Bayesian networks with time sequence simulation technology, were put forward. The algorithm can produce states and random time segments of components, and at the same time it can reason system states, cumulate amounts of time, interrupted customer frequency and interrupted power energy. By using of these cumulative amounts, reliability indices of system can be calculated, but also diagnostic reasoning and cause-effect reasoning can be made, thus the overall assessment of system can be got, the weak parts of system can be identified also. Comparing with the data of the test system, the algorithm is reasonable and effective.