A fuzzy synthetic evaluation method for failure risk of aviation product R&D project

There are many risk factors which lead to the failure of aviation product R&D project, and usually, technical risk, cost risk and schedule risk are three primary kinds of risk. According to failure risk analysis in aviation product R&D project, a risk breakdown structure (RBS), including risk factors and risk consequences, is proposed. More over a fuzzy synthetic evaluation method based on probability risk analysis (PRA) method integrated with fuzzy AHP method used triangular fuzzy numbers is presented to evaluate the failure risk of aviation product R&D project. The method is more available and effective to evaluate the risk which is difficult to give the value and the weight of indexes. At last, a case of aviation R&D project failure risk evaluation is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method.