A basic method for composite power system expansion planning considering probabilistic reliability criteria

This paper proposes a method for choosing the best composite power system expansion plan considering a probabilistic reliability criterion. The proposed method minimizes the investment budget (economics) for constructing new transmission lines subject to deterministic (demand constraint) and probabilistic reliability criteria (LOLE_R), while considering the uncertainties of system elements. It models the power system expansion problem as an integer programming one. The method solves for the optimal strategy using a probabilistic theory-based branch and bound method that utilizes a network flow approach and the maximum flow-minimum cut set theorem. Although the proposed method is applied to a simple sample study, the test results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable for solving the power system expansion planning problem subject to practical future uncertainties