DocumentCode
2764353
Title
Is it captures the cyclical and trend component in the neural networks models?
Author
Zambrano, Cristian O. ; Velásquez, Juan D.
Author_Institution
Fac. de Minas, Univ. Nac. de Colombia, Medellin, Colombia
fYear
2012
fDate
1-5 Oct. 2012
Firstpage
1
Lastpage
6
Abstract
In this article, we evaluate the autoregressive neural networks (ARNN) in forecasting time series with trend and seasonal cycle. For the time series analyzed, we found that the combined application of simple and seasonal differentiation factors does not necessarily contribute to better forecasts than if these are applied separately, and that while the preprocessing of data helps to better forecast does not mean that models are not able to capture both the trend and the seasonal cycle present in the untransformed series. In this regard, both the ARNN as the MLP (used as a benchmark) gave better results than the SARIMA process, which in the case of MLP contradicts what is stated in [15], so the assertion that MLPs do not capture these components applies only in special cases. This conclusion can be extended to ARNN model.
Keywords
forecasting theory; neural nets; time series; ARNN; autoregressive neural networks; cyclical component; forecasting time series; trend component; Adaptation models; Benchmark testing; Biological neural networks; Forecasting; Market research; Predictive models; Time series analysis; autorregrsive neuroal networks; multilayer perceptron; neuro-fuzzy systems; seasonality; time series forecasting; trend;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Computing Congress (CCC), 2012 7th Colombian
Conference_Location
Medellin
Print_ISBN
978-1-4673-1475-6
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ColombianCC.2012.6398022
Filename
6398022
Link To Document