Predicting the Quality of Service of a Peer-to-Peer Desktop Grid

Peer-to-peer (P2P) desktop grids have been proposed as an economical way to increase the processing capabilities of information technology (IT) infrastructures. In a P2P grid, a peer donates its idle resources to the other peers in the system, and, in exchange, can use the idle resources of other peers when its processing demand surpasses its local computing capacity. Despite their cost-effectiveness, scheduling of processing demands on IT infrastructures that encompass P2P desktop grids is more difficult. At the root of this difficulty is the fact that the quality of the service provided by P2P desktop grids varies significantly over time. The research we report in this paper tackles the problem of estimating the quality of service of P2P desktop grids. We base our study on the OurGrid system, which implements an autonomous incentive mechanism based on reciprocity, called the Network of Favours (NoF). In this paper we propose a model for predicting the quality of service of a P2P desktop grid that uses the NoF incentive mechanism. The model proposed is able to estimate the amount of resources that is available for a peer in the system at future instants of time. We also evaluate the accuracy of the model by running simulation experiments fed with field data. Our results show that in the worst scenario the proposed model is able to predict how much of a given demand for resources a peer is going to obtain from the grid with a mean prediction error of only 7.2%.