Simulation modeling and analysis for ordering decision of manufacturer with supply, demand and exchange rate risks

Author

Pan, Yanchun ; Zhou, Ming ; Yang, Wei ; Chen, Zhimin

Author_Institution

Coll. of Manage., Shenzhen Univ., Shenzhen, China

fYear

2012

fDate

2-4 July 2012

Firstpage

129

Lastpage

133

Abstract

Ordering decision-making in global supply chain faces more risks such as the uncertainties of supply, demand and exchange rate. A multi-stage, stochastic, non-linear programming model is proposed to describe this problem. Due to its complexity, discrete-event simulation is used to capture the stochastic and dynamic characteristics, and evaluate the system´s performance. A response surface method integrating with simulation and ranking selection is designed to optimize the ordering quantities. The results of simulation experiments validate the model and optimization procedure proposed in this paper.

Keywords

discrete event simulation; nonlinear programming; order processing; response surface methodology; risk analysis; stochastic processes; stochastic programming; supply and demand; supply chain management; demand uncertainty; discrete-event simulation; dynamic characteristics; exchange rate risk; global supply chain; manufacturer ordering decision; multistage stochastic nonlinear programming model; optimization procedure; ordering decision-making; ordering quantity optimization; ranking selection; response surface method; simulation modeling; stochastic characteristics; supply and demand; supply uncertainty; system performance evaluation; Analytical models; Decision making; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Optimization; Raw materials; Supply chains; global supply chain; multiple risks; ordering decision-making; response surface method; simulation modeling;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), 2012 9th International Conference on

Conference_Location

Shanghai

Print_ISBN

978-1-4577-2024-6

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICSSSM.2012.6252206

Filename

6252206