Title :
Simulation modeling and analysis for ordering decision of manufacturer with supply, demand and exchange rate risks
Author :
Pan, Yanchun ; Zhou, Ming ; Yang, Wei ; Chen, Zhimin
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Manage., Shenzhen Univ., Shenzhen, China
Abstract :
Ordering decision-making in global supply chain faces more risks such as the uncertainties of supply, demand and exchange rate. A multi-stage, stochastic, non-linear programming model is proposed to describe this problem. Due to its complexity, discrete-event simulation is used to capture the stochastic and dynamic characteristics, and evaluate the system´s performance. A response surface method integrating with simulation and ranking selection is designed to optimize the ordering quantities. The results of simulation experiments validate the model and optimization procedure proposed in this paper.
Keywords :
discrete event simulation; nonlinear programming; order processing; response surface methodology; risk analysis; stochastic processes; stochastic programming; supply and demand; supply chain management; demand uncertainty; discrete-event simulation; dynamic characteristics; exchange rate risk; global supply chain; manufacturer ordering decision; multistage stochastic nonlinear programming model; optimization procedure; ordering decision-making; ordering quantity optimization; ranking selection; response surface method; simulation modeling; stochastic characteristics; supply and demand; supply uncertainty; system performance evaluation; Analytical models; Decision making; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Optimization; Raw materials; Supply chains; global supply chain; multiple risks; ordering decision-making; response surface method; simulation modeling;
Conference_Titel :
Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM), 2012 9th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shanghai
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-2024-6
DOI :
10.1109/ICSSSM.2012.6252206
