Complexity in Energy Policy: A Fuzzy Logic Methodology

This Twenty-first century global systems such as climate change models, energy systems, and international trade, have traditionally trusted conventional logic and mathematics to reduce complexity. The 2008 failing of conventional predictive models (in all economical, political, and social spheres) proved that a new approach is needed to understand and predict the behavior of man-made complex systems. This paper is an attempt to introduce a fuzzy logic methodology for formulating energy policies. A new definition of an energy system is given based on its fuzzy functionality and complex inter-relational properties. Instead of crisp numbers, fuzzy values are proposed to be defined and used for evaluating policy parameters. Unknown or poorly known factors can be taken into account through adding fuzzy constants to otherwise linear equations established between the system parameters. Fuzziness of the variables are transferred from the inputs to the outputs without being unduly magnified or eliminated. Results of a fuzzy model of energy policy can be expressed in fuzzy values, reflecting the realities and providing flexibility in implementation.