Study on how the central bank guard against the risk of exchange rate: Based on VaR model

Since the 1970´s, Developing countries have begun to introduce structural economic liberalization and stable macroeconomic plan, but these attempts do not achieve the expected effects in the short term. While the external environment is becoming increasingly complex, fixed exchange rate system began to appear collapse and Monetary crisis has appeared. Especially since the 1980´s, the international financial crisis began frequently. The traditional monetary crisis model has general lack of quantitative analysis of the monetary system and real-time evaluation. Thus, apply the VaR method to exchange rate risk assessment has stronger reality, it can make scientific quantitative analysis of the exchange rate risk, then make the central bank´s supervision more effective.