A new method of building grey forecasting model

Author

Zeng, Xiangyan ; Xiao, Xinping

Author_Institution

Coll. of Math. & Comput. Sci., Guilin Univ. of Electron. Technol., Guilin, China

fYear

2009

fDate

17-19 June 2009

Firstpage

751

Lastpage

756

Abstract

Based on the modeling mechanism, the background value of accumulating method GM(1,1) model is reestablished, and its forecasting formula changed from white respond to connotation type. The theoretical analysis indicates that the improved modeling method extends the significative region of the model. And, results of the followed simulated test and the applied examples show that the new modeling method is suitable for either low-growth series or high-growth series, and has a very high precision for both short-term and long-term prediction. It extends the applicable range of GM(1,1).

Keywords

forecasting theory; grey systems; accumulating method; grey forecasting model; high-growth series; long-term prediction; low-growth series; short-term prediction; white respond; Differential equations; Educational institutions; Least squares approximation; Least squares methods; Mathematics; Parameter estimation; Predictive models; Stability; Technology forecasting; Testing; Accumulating method; Background value; Connotation type; GM(1,1) model; White respond;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Control and Decision Conference, 2009. CCDC '09. Chinese

Conference_Location

Guilin

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-2722-2

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-2723-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/CCDC.2009.5191863

Filename

5191863