Evaluation of long term channel prediction methods using ray tracing simulation [cellular radio]

The subject of this investigation is the evaluation of certain time invariant auto-regressive estimation and prediction techniques. These prediction techniques are based on an over-specified auto-regressive model of order p. The parameters for the prediction model are obtained by solving the Yule Walker equations and adaptively tracking the coefficients as new channel data becomes available. The performance of these methods has been reported for certain simplified models of the mobile cellular environment, but the purpose of this investigation is to analyze these methods using a ray tracing simulation engine, which generates the in phase and quadrature components of the wireless cellular environment. This approach assesses the reliability and accuracy of these prediction algorithms for a more common and more realistic type of mobile environment. The ray-tracing simulator is based on the geometric optic (GO) and geometric theory of diffraction (GTD) approximations for electromagnetic fields at high frequencies.