DocumentCode
2789880
Title
A combined prediction method of wind farm power
Author
Ye, Chen ; Li, Gengyin ; Zhou, Ming
Author_Institution
Key Lab. of Power Syst. Protection & Dynamic Security Monitoring & Control under Minist. of Educ., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
fYear
2010
fDate
20-22 Sept. 2010
Firstpage
1
Lastpage
5
Abstract
Wind power forecasting has great significance to the connection of wind farms to the electric power system. This paper analyzes individual forecast models, such as the time series forecasting, Elman network forecasting that based on the chaos theory, grey neural network forecasting, and generalized regression neural network forecasting, etc., then puts forward an entropy weight combination prediction model, and an optimal combination forecasting model for the wind power forecasting that based on vector angle cosine. The forecasting results indicate that due to the different forecast precisions of different methods, the methods with high precisions may bring great variation in some points, and the combination forecast can reduce the forecasting variation in several points, which improve the forecasting precision.
Keywords
chaos; neural nets; power systems; regression analysis; time series; wind power plants; Elman network forecasting; chaos theory; electric power system; entropy weight combination prediction model; forecast models; grey neural network forecasting; optimal combination forecasting model; regression neural network forecasting; time series forecasting; vector angle cosine; wind farm power; wind power forecasting; Artificial neural networks; Entropy; Forecasting; Predictive models; Wind farms; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Wind farm; combination forecasting; entropy value; power forecasting; weight coefficient;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Critical Infrastructure (CRIS), 2010 5th International Conference on
Conference_Location
Beijing
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-8080-7
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/CRIS.2010.5617532
Filename
5617532
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