• DocumentCode
    2789880
  • Title

    A combined prediction method of wind farm power

  • Author

    Ye, Chen ; Li, Gengyin ; Zhou, Ming

  • Author_Institution
    Key Lab. of Power Syst. Protection & Dynamic Security Monitoring & Control under Minist. of Educ., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
  • fYear
    2010
  • fDate
    20-22 Sept. 2010
  • Firstpage
    1
  • Lastpage
    5
  • Abstract
    Wind power forecasting has great significance to the connection of wind farms to the electric power system. This paper analyzes individual forecast models, such as the time series forecasting, Elman network forecasting that based on the chaos theory, grey neural network forecasting, and generalized regression neural network forecasting, etc., then puts forward an entropy weight combination prediction model, and an optimal combination forecasting model for the wind power forecasting that based on vector angle cosine. The forecasting results indicate that due to the different forecast precisions of different methods, the methods with high precisions may bring great variation in some points, and the combination forecast can reduce the forecasting variation in several points, which improve the forecasting precision.
  • Keywords
    chaos; neural nets; power systems; regression analysis; time series; wind power plants; Elman network forecasting; chaos theory; electric power system; entropy weight combination prediction model; forecast models; grey neural network forecasting; optimal combination forecasting model; regression neural network forecasting; time series forecasting; vector angle cosine; wind farm power; wind power forecasting; Artificial neural networks; Entropy; Forecasting; Predictive models; Wind farms; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation; Wind farm; combination forecasting; entropy value; power forecasting; weight coefficient;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Critical Infrastructure (CRIS), 2010 5th International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Beijing
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-8080-7
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/CRIS.2010.5617532
  • Filename
    5617532