How uncertainty consumes prediction

Author

Gray, John E. ; Smith-Carroll, A. Sunshine

Author_Institution

Syst. Res. & Technol. Dept., Naval Surfare Warfare Center, Dahlgren, VA

fYear

2005

fDate

5-12 March 2005

Firstpage

2074

Lastpage

2082

Abstract

The problem of prediction of target location and the role that this problem plays in the design and evolution of a modern combat system is analyzed. Connected with this problem is the task of choosing one set of hypotheses from among many viable sets. The functional dependence of the ability to make a prediction is discussed with particular attention paid to efficiencies and deficiencies. A general principle is proposed that helps bound the prediction problem from a weapons system perspective. A technique due to Jaynes called the transformation group method is applied to understand some of the problems of prediction

Keywords

prediction theory; probability; target tracking; uncertainty handling; weapons; hypotheses selection; hypotheses space reduction; modern combat system; prediction problem; target location; transformation group method; Control systems; Electrical capacitance tomography; Intelligent sensors; Predictive models; Probability density function; System performance; Timing; Trajectory; Uncertainty; Weapons; Combat System Performance Evaluation; Hypotheses Selection; Hypotheses Space Reduction; Jaynes; Prediction; State of Knowledge; Transformation; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Aerospace Conference, 2005 IEEE

Conference_Location

Big Sky, MT

Print_ISBN

0-7803-8870-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/AERO.2005.1559499

Filename

1559499