Model to forecast the popularity of electric vehicles

Electric vehicle (EV) is getting more and more popular and characters of environment-friendly and fuel-saving serve as the mean course for its expanding. In order to predict the performance of EVs in the near future, a model is presented to simulate the car market the main ´battle field´ of electrification of transportation. Two complementary and reciprocal factors are concentrated in our model consumers and manufacturers, whose decisions will be influenced by prices, maintenance costs, production costs, market demand and supply. To evaluate our model, we assume a virtual country with ten thousand cars. Using our model to simulate the recursive progress of electrification, then the simulations shows the virtual market will be taken by EVs gradually. After that, our model is used to analyze energy saving during the electrification of transportation and the factors changing are also discussed to present their affection of the electrifying progress.