Title :
Study of the medium-long load forecasting based on the identical dimension addition grey model
Author :
Du, Xinhui ; Bai, Jingbo ; Fan, Qing
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Electr. & Power Eng, Taiyuan Univ. of Technol., Taiyuan, China
Abstract :
The principle of identical dimension additional prediction was discussed based on the Grey theory in this paper. The identical dimension additional dynamic grey model in the medium-long term load forecasting had been put forward in the power system, and the annual load value in this region of 1999-2009 was forecasted by modeling on the basis of this region´s historical load data. According to inspection of the posterior error and relative error caused by the forecasting results, the following could be realized. This method has the advantages of the need of less samples, the higher forecast precision, the faster calculating rate, and it is a practical medium-long term load forecasting method in the power system.
Keywords :
grey systems; load forecasting; power system planning; identical dimension addition grey model; medium-long load forecasting; posterior error; power system; relative error; Data models; Forecasting; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Mathematical model; Predictive models; identical dimension additional grey theory; medium-long term load forecasting; posterior error inspection; prediction model;
Conference_Titel :
Mechanic Automation and Control Engineering (MACE), 2011 Second International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Hohhot
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-9436-1
DOI :
10.1109/MACE.2011.5987022