Impact of human activities and climatic change on surface runoff in Hebei Province

Using hydrological data of Hebei Province to revert to and coherently correct surface runoff series from 1956 to 2000, educing natural annual surface runoff series before land cover changes and after, and comparing with each other, discovering that to plain area of all 12 water resource third class area and mountain areas and six third class area human activities has been of obvious influence. According to the relationship between surface runoff series under actual land cover conditions and climate factors (precipitation, evaporation, temperature), the establishment of several nonlinear statistical model was made, establishing the logarithmic nonlinear statistical model, it´s of obvious correlation and high sensitivity. According climate scenarios data of year 2030 and 2050 to predict the change on surface runoff, comparing with the standard climate values, in year 2030, precipitation will increase by 4%~12%, and the temperature will rise 1.1-1.4 °C, surface runoff change will be 11.436-13.824 billion m3; In year 2050, precipitation will increase by 4% to 14%, and the temperature will rise 1.7~2.2°C, surface runoff change will be 10.68-13.78 billion m³.