Adversary phase change detection using S.O.M. and text data

In this work, we developed a self-organizing map (SOM) technique for using web-based text analysis to forecast when a group is undergoing a phase change. By “phase change”, we mean that an organization has fundamentally shifted attitudes or behaviors. For instance, when ice melts into water, the characteristics of the substance change. A formerly peaceful group may suddenly adopt violence, or a violent organization may unexpectedly agree to a ceasefire. SOM techniques were used to analyze text obtained from organization postings on the world-wide web. Results suggest it may be possible to forecast phase changes, and determine if an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.