Advancement in Oil Spill Trajectory Modelling

The continuing increase in offshore crude oil production and transportation is presently coupled with widespread concern over protection of the environment. This has led to interest by members of the petrochemical community, in the development of suitable methods for quickly predicting the probable transport path and coastal impact time of a possible oil spill in the offshore environment. An oil slick simulator of the stochastic trajectory type has been enhanced in an effort to provide such methods. In particular, four areas will be addressed. First, both the Fay radial spreading equations and a long-term dispersive algorithm are now provided. Additionally, the slick may now assume an elliptical shape. Secondly, wind and current forcing functions may now be generated with the use of Markov state transition matrices as well as through the use of input time histories. Thirdly, the model will adaptively calculate coefficients for the transport equations in an attempt to correct for deficiencies in the particular equations used. Finally, the model will now execute in a real-time mode with an on-line computer terminal to allow tracking to occur during an actual spill.