A comparison study and modeling suggestion on financial crisis prediction at home and abroad

In this paper, a full review of prediction models of financial crisis has been provided. The differences, advantages and defects of prediction models established by foreign and domestic researchers are compared on the base of four aspects such as the definition of financial crisis, the choice of samples, the choice of variables and computation methods. These four aspects are key points to build prediction models of enterprise financial crisis. Four modeling suggestions on improving prediction models are proposed for our researchers in respect of above four aspects, which involve establishing a two-stage prediction model, choosing more reasonable samples with the same characteristics, considering cash flow & non-financial ratios and combining qualitative & quantitative analysis method.