Predicted Swimming-Associated Gastroenteritis at New York Bight Bathing Beaches

A model, developed to predict the beach-specific rates and annual number of cases of swimming-associated, acute gastroenteritis, was applied to the data obtained from a study of 78 coastal sampling stations and associated bathing beaches along the New York Bight from Cape May, New Jersey to the Shinnecock Inlet, Long Island. The predicted rates were < 0.1/1000 swimmers for most of the stations, even at the 90 percentile level. There were 14 stations, at which the rates approached or exceeded 5/1000 swimmers 10 percent of the time; of these, seven were directly affected by polluted water emanating from Lower Hudson Bay. In general, the predicted rates were consistent with known sources of municipal wastewater discharges; and there were no detectable effects of sludge dumping in the Bight.