Title :
The Application of Markov Chain into the Forecast for Population Age Structure in Shanghai
Author :
Hongyan Li ; Zhong Wu
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage. Studies, Shanghai Univ. of Eng. Sci., Shanghai, China
Abstract :
By using the data of Shanghai´s population age structure in 2004 2007, based on the forecasting model of Markov chain, the paper calculated the transition probability of the changes for population age structure in Shanghai. In the last, using the transition probability matrix predicted population age structure of Shanghai in the future. The conclusion is that: Aging trend is growing now and the next 10 years in Shanghai.
Keywords :
Markov processes; demography; Markov chain application; population age structure forecast; transition probability matrix; Aging; Cities and towns; Data engineering; Decision making; Economic forecasting; Engineering management; Inventory management; Predictive models; Senior citizens; Technological innovation;
Conference_Titel :
Computational Intelligence and Software Engineering, 2009. CiSE 2009. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Wuhan
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4507-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4507-3
DOI :
10.1109/CISE.2009.5363802
