Prediction of antidumping remedy effects based on grey model

Researches about remedy effects of antidumping (AD) measures on the macroscopic vision have been remarkable. For the specific industry, however, some paradoxes exist. In order to clarify this phenomenon, the prediction of envelope in grey model was introduced in this paper and the Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) industry was an example. Based on standpoint in 2009, the time of AD reexamination, this paper had compared the prediction of mutually related indices in PVC industry from 2010 to 2011 with the real value, and then predicted the changes in 2012. Conclusion from the study was that the effects of AD remedy were not satisfactory as usual and demonstrated that the paradoxes have existed in PVC industry. In addition, any industry which has been damaged by dumping could mirror AD effects with this method and then makes relatively rational policies for the specific industry on development.