Changes in hydrographic conditions associated with 2005–2007 storm surges in the Odra mouth — a numerical study

A pre-operational hydrodynamic model of the Baltic Sea (M3D_UG), developed at the Institute of Oceanography, University of Gdansk was used to describe changes in hydrodynamic conditions in the Odra mouth (the southern Baltic Sea) during storm surges that occurred in the years 2005-2007. The model was based on the coastal ocean circulation model known as the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Because of wind-driven water backflow in the Odra mouth, a simplified operational model of river discharge, based on water budget in a stream channel, was developed. Linking these two models into a single system made it possible to forecast water levels as well as water physical features in the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay. Evaluation of the modelpsilas performance for two simulations that were carried out showed a good fit between the observed and computed data. The model correctly reflected events involving high-amplitude and rapid water level fluctuations as well as fast changes of physical properties of the water; it also generated relatively good flow simulations.