Parametric cost estimating: a practical independent method of estimating the manufacturing cost of chips to modules in the Peoples Republic of China

The cost estimating discipline is making rapid progress in the Peoples Republic of China. Parametric cost estimating tools, including a microcircuit parametric estimating model, have been introduced to the major large system developers in China. The parametric cost estimating process not only estimates product cost but also provides an effective program cost management tool used for design to cost trade studies. This paper introduces the parametric cost estimating method and explores the parametric process when applied to an advanced microcircuit packaging (LTCC) in a high volume, relatively low cost application used in a rugged environment. The PRICE Systems Microcircuit (PRICE M) parametric cost estimating model is presented along with its fundamental cost drivers and factors. An independent parametric estimate for a low temperature cofired ceramic (LTCC) microcircuit module is presented. The required estimating parameters and the resulting estimate is described along with a technical walk-thru using the independent parametric estimate of the 24 GHz short range radar sensor for automotive applications. The independent cost analysis estimate is based upon a microcircuit developed in a joint project of IMST GmbH (Germany) with DuPont Microcircuit Materials (a detailed presentation of the microcircuit project is described in the IMAPS Advancing Microelectronics March/April 2005 publication). The packaged chips and all components along with the LTCC substrate cost and assembly and test costs of the assembled module is estimated and presented. The entire estimate uses P.R. China financial factors.