Title :
Freight transport demand prediction model of freight corridor
Author :
Yun Bai ; Yang Pei ; Lingling Yang ; Meiquan Xie ; Zengyong Zhang
Author_Institution :
MOE Key Lab. for Urban Transp. Complex Syst. Theor. & Technol., Beijing Jiaotong Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
Scientific and accurate transportation volume prediction for freight corridor is one of the essential works of transport network planning, which masters the corridor´s development, trend, characteristic, raw and quantity. The traditional prediction method of freight volume includes exponential smoothing model, regression Prediction, GM (1, 1) model and combined model. This paper explores the procedures and characteristics of these models. And the GM (1,1) model and cubic exponential smoothing model are used to predict the Shuozhou-Huanghua railway freight volume. Based on that, the suitable conditions of the traditional models are discussed as well.
Keywords :
freight containers; regression analysis; transportation; Shuozhou Huanghua railway; accurate transportation volume prediction; freight corridor; freight transport demand prediction model; regression prediction; scientific transportation volume prediction; smoothing model; transport network planning; corridor; freight transport; prediction model; railway traffic;
Conference_Titel :
Advanced Forum on Transportation of China (AFTC 2009), 5th
Conference_Location :
Beijing
DOI :
10.1049/cp.2009.1593