An alternative explanation of the constant stress rupture experiments at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab

The reliability function of a component cannot be satisfactorily estimated from experiments, because: (i) an accurate estimation of the lifetime distribution tails, controlling the most important domain of high reliability, requires a very large sample; and (ii) reliability tests under normal operational conditions are necessarily very lengthy. Hence the urgent need for a physical model for component lifetime statistics. The paper presents an application of the developed model for damage accumulation in polymeric materials to the long-term constant stress rupture experiments on Kevlar composite. The proposed model, based on a single micromechanical damage mechanism, leads to a 2-parameter Weibull lifetime distribution with the shape parameter depending on the applied load by a simple inverse power law. Both distribution models were fitted to experimental lifetime data for different stress levels and the corresponding goodness of fit was compared by the usual likelihood ratio test. The proposed model describes the experimental data better especially in the most important domain of low stress and long (of the order of years) lifetime. The model is physically sound and permits improved design of the accelerated tests and more accurate interpretation of their results, and finally quantitative prediction of the reliability function of the loaded polymeric component