Risk Analysis of Construction Projects Based on Markov Chain

Construction projects are plagued by risks and often suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk analysis techniques available to help alleviate this, but commonly practiced static risk analysis approaches fail to fit with the dynamic nature of construction project process. In this paper, a method based on Markov chain model is proposed to analyze both short-term and long-term risks in construction projects. It provides a quantitative method to implement project risk analysis in a dynamic framework without the necessity of having mass of historical data.