An Evident Degree Method for the Uncertain Problem

The knowledge itself is usually supposed to be uncertain when we solve the uncertain problems, so we always use reliability to represent the uncertainty of knowledge. Because the computation of reliability depends on subjective estimation of people and the consistency of knowledge system, it is difficult to ensure the accuracy and is easy to produce the conflicts. In this paper, we consider that the knowledge is certain within a certain interval and knowledge frame, and propose a method to calculate the uncertainty based on the historical facts and phenomena of problems. Taking the Problem Oriented Analysis and Decision Knowledge Model (POADKM) as the research object, a counter is attached to every problem of this system in this method to record the number of problem facts. When judging a new problem whether exists or not, we can calculate the evident degree about the occurrence of the problem based on the previous facts, and let users make decisions according to the calculated evident degree.