Title :
Short-Term Forecast of Power Generation for Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System Based on Advanced Grey-Markov Chain
Author :
Li, Ying-zi ; He, Lin ; Nie, Ru-Qing
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Inf. & Electr. Eng., Beijing Univ. of Civil Eng. & Archit., Beijing, China
Abstract :
As a distributed generation, grid-connected photovoltaic system affects the stability of power system directly. The forecast precision for distributed generation will be useful to the power system planning and operation. According to the operation data, which characteristics are changed in exponent rule and randomness, an advanced Grey-Markov chain model has been applied in short-term forecast of 5.6 kW grid-connected photovoltaic system. The calculated result shows that the GM(1,1) model accuracy has been greatly enhanced. It indicates that the trend of photovoltaic generation forecast is more definite when the GM(1,1) model was modified by advanced Markov chain.
Keywords :
Markov processes; photovoltaic power systems; power grids; power system planning; power system stability; Grey-Markov chain model; distributed generation; grid-connected photovoltaic system; power 5.6 kW; power generation; power system planning; power system stability; short-term forecast; Distributed control; Load forecasting; Photovoltaic systems; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Power system reliability; Power system stability; Predictive models; Solar power generation; Wind forecasting; 1) model; GM(1; advanced Grey-Markov chain model; photovoltaic system; power generation; short-term forecast;
Conference_Titel :
Energy and Environment Technology, 2009. ICEET '09. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Guilin, Guangxi
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3819-8
DOI :
10.1109/ICEET.2009.305
