Cumulant-based probabilistic load flow calculation in a market environment

This paper proposes a probabilistic load flow (PLF) method considering market factors in power system analysis. Market-based power system brings a great many uncertainties and challenges to system operation and planning and market factors cannot be ignored in probabilistic load flow calculation. The method proposed in this paper is based on combined Cumulants and Gram-Charlier expansion and incorporates system participants´ activity in power flow calculation. A real large power system Queensland network in Australia is used as an example to examine efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method. The results are compared with conventional Cumulants and Gram-Charlier based PLF method (CGC) without considering market level uncertainties and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) based on the real power system. Differences among these methods are analyzed and discussed in detail. The proposed method improves the accuracy and reality of PLF results.