Grey prediction on China’s energy consumption and production

The rapid economic growth in China results in the fast energy consumption and production. The dynamic GM(1,N) model of grey theory is used to develop the dynamic GM(1, N) model to forecast the final energy consumption and production in China. In order to improve the forecast accuracy, the original GM(1, N) models are improved by using two methodologies of equal dimension replenishment and residual modification. We analyze the data of total consumption and production of energy and its composition from 1996 to 2005 in China, and forecast China´s energy consumption and production by this grey forecasting model, which shows that the improved grey forecasting model is of more reliability and higher forecast accuracy than GM (1, N).The forecast results indicate that China´s final energy consumption and production will increase rapidly in the period of 2006 to 2015.