DocumentCode
2914025
Title
A fuzzy-grey optimizing prediction model based on the fuzzy membership function
Author
Hongzhuan, Chen
Author_Institution
NO. 29, Yudao Street, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, PR. China
fYear
2007
fDate
18-20 Nov. 2007
Firstpage
1028
Lastpage
1030
Abstract
This paper presents an optimizing fuzzy-grey prediction model in accordance with the phenomena that have different behaviors at different time. With the grey theory and fuzzy theory, we designed the ratio by the fuzzy membership function. Thus the ratio is variable to compensate for the limitation of GM(1,1) model, in which the ratio is a constant 0.5. Since some phenomena present different specific behaviors at different time, we constructed data groups to reduce the size of the targets and combined fuzzification techniques with the grey theory to develop a fuzzy grey prediction model as one of predicting function to predict the possible answer immediately and accurately. To demonstrate that our model is working correctly, we used this model to predict electricity every month in one year and got good results. The facts illustrate that the fuzzy-grey optimizing model shows many advantages as shown in this paper.
Keywords
forecasting theory; fuzzy set theory; grey systems; optimisation; fuzzy membership function; fuzzy-grey optimizing prediction model; Automatic control; Differential equations; Economic forecasting; Fuzzy systems; History; Intelligent systems; Prediction methods; Predictive models; Statistics; Time varying systems;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2007. GSIS 2007. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location
Nanjing
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-1294-5
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-1294-5
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443428
Filename
4443428
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