Forecasting Terrorist Groups´ Warfare: Conventional to CBRN

To forecast the spectrum of warfare that a terrorist group is likely to conduct against a specific adversary, this paper proposes an indications and warning (I&W) methodology to comprehensively and systematically map significant indicators that need to be assessed, weighed, and correlated. A key proposition in this paper is that to adequately assess the likelihood and magnitude of the types of threats posed by contemporary terrorism three issues need to be addressed. First, as mentioned above, threat assessments need to focus on three types of warfare that characterize that spectrum of terrorist operations: CLI, CHI, and CBRN.