Monitoring dynamic risk evolutions in operational flows of a supply chain

To be competitive, supply chains must be able to analyze and evaluate in real-time critical differences between the short-term planned actions and the actual performed actions generating states of undesirable or unacceptable risk. We propose in this paper, a method for monitoring the dynamic evolution of risk levels in the operational flow of a supply chain. This is a quantitative and a qualitative method assessing risk levels in operational states in case of normal scenarios or critical scenarios. The critical scenarios involve threats issued from the FME(C)A analysis and modeled with time Petri nets. The implementation of this method is performed by monitoring a delivery process facing risks associated to delays in the transport stream. We aim to determine and to evaluate the diversion or deterioration in the progress of the delivery operation execution.