Title :
The research on scenario prediction in business operation
Author :
Pan, Yitian ; Wang, Shuangcheng
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Comput. Sci., Illinois Inst. of Technol., Chicago, IL, USA
Abstract :
Accurate prediction of operating conditions and effective reduction of operating risks leads to be an important and sticky issue to today´s enterprise. This paper, using scenario analysis, constructs various conditions and future development path scenarios based on rigorous reasoning describe and makes forecasts by joint reasoning based on Bayesian Network Model. Compared with previous work, our contribution mainly focuses on considering and utilizing the dependency relationship between scenario variables to make analysis and prediction in business operation.
Keywords :
Bayes methods; business data processing; risk management; Bayesian network model; business operation prediction; joint reasoning; operating risk reduction; scenario analysis; scenario prediction; Bayesian methods; Business; Cognition; Finance; Maintenance engineering; Marketing and sales; Vectors; Bayesian Network; Enterprise Operating; Scenario Prediction;
Conference_Titel :
Granular Computing (GrC), 2011 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kaohsiung
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4577-0372-0
DOI :
10.1109/GRC.2011.6122655
