Reliability Prediction of Fuel cycling System in Pebble Bed Reactor Based on GO Methodology

A reliability predication method based on GO methodology for fuel cycling system (FCS) in pebble bed reactor is introduced. Regarding to the specific structure and function of the FCS, the probability of FCS was defined. By using decomposition and reconstruction the probability of complex bridging system was calculated directly, some new operators and corresponding algorithm were derived. The comparison of reliability between different modes-bridging mode, parallel mode, and off-state mode was presented, and the sensitivity of components to system modes was analyzed though an example. The results show that the proposed method is effective for the prediction of FCS and can provide a theoretical basis for the program decision and optimum design.