Research on the prediction model of oscillatory sequence based on GM (1, 1) and its application in electricity demand prediction

Simulation precision of conventional grey prediction models is poor when the modeling sequence has the feature of oscillation. Actually, the smoother the sequence is, the higher the simulation precision is. With the purpose of perfecting the smoothness of the oscillation sequence and improving the simulation precision of grey models, this paper researches a smoothing algorithm which can compress the amplitude of the oscillation sequence, and by this algorithm, deduces a novel grey prediction model based on the oscillation sequence. Finally, we employ the new model to forecast the electricity demand of a city in western China, and compare the simulation precision with other grey models, the results shows the new model has the best simulation effect. Research findings have an important significance to enrich and perfect grey system theory and construct a more reasonable electricity demand prediction model.