Application of combination grey model in cultivation land quantity forecast: — A case study of Fuyang city in Anhui province

Author

Huan Hongyan ; Tan Qingmei

Author_Institution

Sch. of Econ. & Manage, Fuyang Normal Coll., Fuyang, China

fYear

2013

fDate

15-17 Nov. 2013

Firstpage

167

Lastpage

172

Abstract

Predicting and grasping the changing trend of cultivated land resources using scientific methods, help to ensure national food security and economic and social sustainable development. With the metabolism thoughts and the Grey-Markov model introduced to the forecast of cultivated land resources, the classic GM (1, 1) model was improved. We took an empirical research with a case of Fuyang city in Anhui province. The results showed that the accuracy of the traditional GM (1, 1) model decreased in long-term prediction, and the moving metabolism GM (1, 1) and Grey-Markov model based on had higher forecasting precision, which can give a reliable guarantee for mastering the change of cultivated land resources.

Keywords

Markov processes; forecasting theory; grey systems; land use planning; socio-economic effects; sustainable development; Anhui Province; Fuyang City; GM (1,1) model; Grey-Markov model; combination grey model; cultivated land resources; cultivation land quantity forecast; economic sustainable development; forecasting precision; long-term prediction; national food security; scientific methods; social sustainable development; Accuracy; Biochemistry; Biological system modeling; Data models; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; 1) model; GM (1; Grey Markov model; Moving Metabolism GM (1; cultivated land resources; forecast;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2013 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Macao

ISSN

2166-9430

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-5247-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/GSIS.2013.6714771

Filename

6714771