Application of combination grey model in cultivation land quantity forecast: — A case study of Fuyang city in Anhui province

Predicting and grasping the changing trend of cultivated land resources using scientific methods, help to ensure national food security and economic and social sustainable development. With the metabolism thoughts and the Grey-Markov model introduced to the forecast of cultivated land resources, the classic GM (1, 1) model was improved. We took an empirical research with a case of Fuyang city in Anhui province. The results showed that the accuracy of the traditional GM (1, 1) model decreased in long-term prediction, and the moving metabolism GM (1, 1) and Grey-Markov model based on had higher forecasting precision, which can give a reliable guarantee for mastering the change of cultivated land resources.