Traffic prediction for mobile network using Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing

This paper presents a technique for evaluation of future radio traffic of circuit switched services in Erlang for near-term outlook using Holt-Winter´s exponential smoothing. The proposed traffic prediction technique relies on analysis of traffic data on cells. We propose how to classify traffic data for prediction. The result from a trial in history data of commercial GSM/GPRS network is presented. It shows that predicted traffic is good fitted with original one within our classification. The technique should be used in automated overload warning and express estimation of future traffic for capacity planning.