Generation of a Probabilistic Climatology for Arctic Sea Ice

The climatology of sea ice has lagged behind that of waves, currents and atmospheric conditions. Where other climatologies have been expressed in probabilistic terms useful to design engineers and planners, this approach has been used for floating ice only on a site-specific basis. A probabilistic climatology for the arctic shipping zones would greatly facilitate on-going work in the design and regulation of arctic ships and offshore structures. A probabilistic database of sea ice and other marine environmental conditions has been developed to fill this need. The development included the generation of statistical environmental models, and the application of historical data from many sources to describe sea ice, icebergs, ice ridges and at-sea visibility conditions. The data base is stored on a desk-top microcomputer. It can be edited or displayed using a menu system or used in conjunction with other computer models. It provides the first multi-variable, probabilistic climatology of marine environmental conditions covering a significant sector of the polar region.