Research on the Transfer Time Reliability of Urban Passenger Hub

The fluctuant demand and the increasing of congestion level within urban passenger transfer hub makes the transfer travel time of pedestrians of great uncertainty, the static criterion such as transfer travel distance can not evaluate the operating state of transfer hub accurately. In this paper, from the perspective of reliability, the concept of transfer time reliability is defined and as well as the elements referring to this concept, i.e. the critical value and the restrictive condition, etc. Using the travel time function for pedestrian facilities, the reliability model of transfer travel time is established and the Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the results of reliability. At last, the effect on the transfer reliability caused by the effective width and the length of transfer facilities is studied. It can be proved that transfer time reliability can be used to evaluate the ability of transfer hub objectively, and will contribute to the design of new urban transfer hubs.