Cost Evaluation for Hydropower Construction Using Multiple Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Quantifying and minimizing the risks associated with schedule and cost in hydropower construction are the main challenges for all parties involved. Under the impact of uncertain factors such as meteorological factor, there is a great uncertainty in the construction schedule of hydropower construction, accompanying with the occurrence of cost risk. This paper establishes the cost evaluation model using multiple Monte Carol simulation method discusses the uncertainty and distribution of construction cost. By use of the probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation method, a scientific calculation method and procedure were worked out for construction cost. The 95th percentile project schedule value, its corresponding cost value, and the percentile ranking of the cost were recorded, and the conditional percentile ranking of the cost values were determined. Finally, in order to quantify the relationship existing between the percentile ranking of the cost and its corresponding cost value, the regression analysis models about them were founded and compared, and the high confidence percentile estimating values for cost and schedule were required simultaneously. Having the ability to accurately quantify this relationship enables the selection of high percentile level values for the hydropower construction cost estimate and schedule simultaneously.