GM (1, 1) Grey Forecasting and Analysis on Energy Production and Supply in Shandong Province

As one of the important economic provinces in China, Shandong province plays an important role in energy production and energy consumption. Based on the revised time-series data of the energy production and supply in 1985-2009 in Shandong province, this study has established a grey forecasting model GM (1, 1) and made the accuracy checking for it. Smoothing test and exponential test are employed here. According to this GM (1, 1) model, a forecasting analysis on energy supply for ten years from 2010 to 2020 in Shandong province has been made. Further discussions on the energy safety in the future ten years have also been carried on with the forecasting data of GDP growth and energy demand in the corresponding period.