Risk simulation for residential development: A case study for an uncertain market in South Africa

Author

Pretorius, L. ; Li, C.

Author_Institution

Grad. Sch. of Technol. Manage., Univ. of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

fYear

2009

fDate

8-11 Dec. 2009

Firstpage

2138

Lastpage

2142

Abstract

Risk assessment (RA) can be considered to be a sub-system of risk management (RM). Some socioeconomic aspects of creating uncertainty in a residential development in a South African case study are discussed within a systems context. The cultural dimension creating uncertainty in the residential development undertaken by a Chinese company in South Africa is also explored. Conceptual risk simulation using the Monte Carlo method is presented to assess the effect of interest fluctuations on the development.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; commerce; demography; risk management; socio-economic effects; uncertain systems; Monte Carlo method; conceptual risk simulation; cultural dimension; residential development; residential development uncertainty; risk assessment; risk management; socio-economic aspect; uncertain market; Africa; Construction industry; Cultural differences; Economic indicators; Environmental economics; Environmental management; Investments; Risk management; Technology management; Uncertainty; Risk Simulation; case study; cultural dimension; interest rate risk; parametric study; residential development;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2009. IEEM 2009. IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Hong Kong

Print_ISBN

978-1-4244-4869-2

Electronic_ISBN

978-1-4244-4870-8

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/IEEM.2009.5373134

Filename

5373134