The Timing of Merger and the Decision of Information Search Based Synergistic Value under Double Uncertainties

This paper analyzes the timing of merger and the decision of information research based synergistic value under double uncertainties. Through the introduction of the concept of merger success factors, we research merger threshold under two sources of uncertainty which contain size uncertainty and realization uncertainty. Then we estimate the information value of information research and get hold of thresholds of information research and merger, and by comparing these three thresholds we find the optimal strategy of merging firm. Finally, this paper compares the timings under no information research and information research, and reveals the relations between the probability of merger success, the correlation and the timings of merger and information research through numerical analysis.