DocumentCode :
2975021
Title :
Reducing over-conservative expert failure rate estimates in the presence of limited data: A new probabilistic/fuzzy approach
Author :
Ferregut, Carlos ; Campos, F. Joshua ; Kreinovich, Vladik
Author_Institution :
Future Aerosp. Sci. & Technol. (FAST) Center, Univ. of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA
fYear :
2011
fDate :
18-20 March 2011
Firstpage :
1
Lastpage :
6
Abstract :
Unique highly reliable components are typical for aerospace industry. For such components, due to their high reliability and uniqueness, we do not have enough empirical data to make statistically reliable estimates about their failure rate. To overcome this limitation, the empirical data is usually supplemented with expert estimates for the failure rate. The problem is that experts tend to be - especially in aerospace industry - over-cautious, over-conservative; their estimates for the failure rate are usually much higher than the actual observed failure rate. In this paper, we provide a new fuzzy-related statistically justified approach for reducing this over-estimation.
Keywords :
aerospace components; aerospace industry; failure analysis; fuzzy set theory; reliability; aerospace industry; failure rate; fuzzy-related statistically justified approach; highly reliable components; over-conservative expert failure rate estimates; probabilistic-fuzzy approach; statistically reliable estimates; Accuracy; Aerospace industry; Approximation methods; Equations; Optimization; Reliability engineering;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Information Processing Society (NAFIPS), 2011 Annual Meeting of the North American
Conference_Location :
El Paso, TX
ISSN :
Pending
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-968-3
Electronic_ISBN :
Pending
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/NAFIPS.2011.5752025
Filename :
5752025
Link To Document :
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