A dispatching operation risk assessment method based on real-time probabilistic model

The reasonable dispatching is a key part in maintaining security and stability of power system. Due to the uncertainties such as weather and equipment aging, dispatching operation often faces certain risks. It is essential to analyze the real-time risk of dispatching operation to ensure that the risk can be controlled before dispatching orders are carried out. In this paper, risk theory is implied to the process of dispatching operation, evaluating the influence of social period, weather and equipment condition. The framework and method of dispatching operations process are proposed, where the risk index is quantified by the optimal cost control method. Finally, the effectiveness of proposed method is discussed and examples are given. By assessing the operations process risk before dispatching, dispatchers can determine the risk point and its risk degree, so as to pay more attention to the risk point in real dispatching. The comparison of risk between different dispatching schemes can also help dispatcher to choose the best scheme.